專題：聚焦杰克遜霍爾全球央行年會(huì) 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾暗示即將降息

　　華爾街見(jiàn)聞

　　北京時(shí)間23日晚10點(diǎn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾在杰克遜霍爾全球央行年會(huì)上重磅發(fā)聲。

　　會(huì)議上，鮑威爾釋放了迄今為止最為明確的降息信號(hào)，他表示： 政策調(diào)整的時(shí)機(jī)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。降息時(shí)機(jī)和節(jié)奏將取決于后續(xù)數(shù)據(jù)、前景變化和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡。

　　他認(rèn)為，目前的政策利率水平為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提供了充足的空間來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)可能面臨的任何風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，包括勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況進(jìn)一步惡化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。“通脹的上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)減弱，就業(yè)的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則有所增加。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)關(guān)注雙重使命各自所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?/p>

　　以下為講話全文（中英對(duì)照）：

　　Four and a half years after COVID-19‘s arrival， the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading． Inflation has declined significantly． The labor market is no longer overheated， and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic． Supply constraints have normalized． And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed． Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market， avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored． While the task is not complete， we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome．

　　在新冠病毒到來(lái)四年半后，與疫情相關(guān)的最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)扭曲正在消退。通貨膨脹已明顯下降。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)不再過(guò)熱，現(xiàn)在的狀況也不如疫情前那么緊俏。供給限制已經(jīng)正常化。我們兩項(xiàng)任務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。我們的目標(biāo)是恢復(fù)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的同時(shí)保持強(qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，避免失業(yè)率急劇上升，這是通脹預(yù)期沒(méi)有充分錨定時(shí)通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)的早期去通脹特征。我們已經(jīng)朝著這個(gè)目標(biāo)取得了很大進(jìn)展。雖然任務(wù)尚未完成，但我們已經(jīng)朝著這一結(jié)果取得了很大進(jìn)展。

　　Today， I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy． I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived， exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation， and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low．

　　今天，我將首先討論當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和貨幣政策的未來(lái)路徑。然后，我將轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)σ咔橐詠?lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)事件的討論，探討為什么通貨膨脹上升到一代人以來(lái)的更高水平，以及為什么通脹率下降如此之多，而失業(yè)率卻保持在低位。

　　Near-Term Outlook for Policy 近期政策展望

　　Let‘s begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy．

　　讓我們從當(dāng)前的形勢(shì)和近期政策前景開(kāi)始。

　　For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． The Federal Open Market Committee‘s （FOMC） primary focus has been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so． Prior to this episode， most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period． Inflation brought substantial hardship， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing， and transportation． High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today．

　　在過(guò)去三年的大部分時(shí)間里，通脹率遠(yuǎn)高于我們 2% 的目標(biāo)，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況極其緊張。聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì) （FOMC） 的主要重點(diǎn)是降低通脹率，這是理所當(dāng)然的。在此之前，當(dāng)今大多數(shù)美國(guó)人還沒(méi)有經(jīng)歷過(guò)長(zhǎng)期高通脹的痛苦。通脹帶來(lái)了巨大的困難，尤其是對(duì)于那些最無(wú)力承擔(dān)食品、住房和交通等基本生活必需品高昂成本的人來(lái)說(shuō)。高通脹引發(fā)的壓力和不公平感至今仍然存在。

　　Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， with prices having risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months （figure 1） ． After a pause earlier this year， progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed． My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent．

　　我們的限制性貨幣政策有助于恢復(fù)總供需平衡，緩解通脹壓力，并確保通脹預(yù)期保持良好錨定。通貨膨脹現(xiàn)在更接近我們的目標(biāo)，物價(jià)在過(guò)去12個(gè)月中上漲了2.5%（圖1）。繼年初有所凝滯之后，我們朝著2%的目標(biāo)又取得了進(jìn)展。我越來(lái)越有信心，通脹率正沿著可持續(xù)的道路回到2%。

　　Turning to employment， in the years just prior to the pandemic， we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions： low unemployment， high participation， historically low racial employment gaps， and， with inflation low and stable， healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes．

　　談到就業(yè)，在疫情爆發(fā)前的幾年里，我們看到了長(zhǎng)期強(qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況給社會(huì)帶來(lái)的重大利益：低失業(yè)率、高參與率、歷史性的低種族就業(yè)差距，以及通貨膨脹率低而穩(wěn)定、實(shí)際工資增長(zhǎng)健康且越來(lái)越集中在低收入人群中。

　　Today， the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state． The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent—still low by historical standards， but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023 （figure 2）． Most of that increase has come over the past six months． So far， rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs， as is typically the case in an economic downturn． Rather， the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring． Even so， the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable． Job gains remain solid but have slowed this year.Job vacancies have fallen， and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range． The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 2019． Nominal wage gains have moderated． All told， labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent． It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon． We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions．

　　如今，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已從之前的過(guò)熱狀態(tài)大幅降溫。失業(yè)率在一年多前開(kāi)始上升，目前為4.3%，以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量仍然較低，但比2023年初的水平高出將近整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（圖2）。其中大部分上升是在過(guò)去六個(gè)月中實(shí)現(xiàn)的。到目前為止，失業(yè)率上升并不是裁員增加的結(jié)果，而裁員是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期的典型情況。相反，這一增長(zhǎng)主要反映了工人供給的大幅增加以及之前瘋狂的 *** 速度有所放緩。即便如此，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況的降溫是毋庸置疑的。就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)保持穩(wěn)健，但今年有所放緩。職位空缺下降，職位空缺與失業(yè)的比率已回到疫情前的水平。 *** 率和離職率現(xiàn)在低于 2018年和2019年的水平。名義工資增長(zhǎng)有所放緩?？偠灾F(xiàn)在的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況不如2019年疫情之前那么緊張，那一年的通脹率低于2%。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)似乎不太可能在短期內(nèi)成為通脹壓力上升的根源。我們不尋求或歡迎勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況進(jìn)一步降溫。

　　Overall， the economy continues to grow at a solid pace． But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation． The upside risks to inflation have diminished． And the downside risks to employment have increased． As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement， we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate．

　　總體而言，經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)健的速度增長(zhǎng)。但通貨膨脹和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，情況正在不斷變化。通脹的上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)減弱。就業(yè)的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也有所增加。正如我們?cè)谏弦淮蜦OMC中強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣，我們關(guān)注雙重任務(wù)中的兩方面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　The time has come for policy to adjust． The direction of travel is clear， and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks．

　　現(xiàn)在是政策調(diào)整的時(shí)候了。前進(jìn)的方向是明確的，降息的時(shí)機(jī)和步伐將取決于即將到來(lái)的數(shù)據(jù)、不斷變化的前景以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的平衡。

　　We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability． With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint， there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market． The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face， including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions．

　　我們將盡一切努力支持強(qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，同時(shí)在價(jià)格穩(wěn)定方面力求進(jìn)一步進(jìn)展。隨著政策約束的適當(dāng)收斂，我們有充分的理由認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)將回到2%的通脹率，同時(shí)保持強(qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。我們目前的政策利率水平為我們提供了充足的空間來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)可能面臨的任何風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，包括勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況不受歡迎的進(jìn)一步疲軟的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　The Rise and Fall of Inflation 通脹的起落

　　Let‘s now turn to the questions of why inflation rose， and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low． There is a growing body of research on these questions， and this is a good time for this discussion.It is， of course， too soon to make definitive asses *** ents． This period will be *** yzed and debated long after we are gone．

　　現(xiàn)在讓我們來(lái)談?wù)劄槭裁赐ㄘ浥蛎洉?huì)上升，為什么在失業(yè)率保持低位的情況下通貨膨脹卻大幅下降。關(guān)于這些問(wèn)題的研究越來(lái)越多，現(xiàn)在是討論的好時(shí)機(jī)。當(dāng)然，現(xiàn)在做出明確的評(píng)估還為時(shí)過(guò)早。在我們離開(kāi)后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間，人們?nèi)詫?duì)這段時(shí)期進(jìn)行分析和辯論。

　　The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world． It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks． As so often happens in times of crisis， Americans adapted and innovated． Governments responded with extraordinary force， especially in the U.S． Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act． At the Fed， we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help stave off an economic depression．

　　新冠疫情的爆發(fā)迅速導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)停擺。這是一個(gè)充滿不確定性和嚴(yán)重下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的時(shí)期。正如危機(jī)時(shí)期經(jīng)常發(fā)生的那樣，美國(guó)人適應(yīng)并創(chuàng)新。各國(guó) *** 做出了非凡的回應(yīng)，尤其是美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)一致通過(guò)了《關(guān)懷法案》。在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，我們以前所未有的程度運(yùn)用我們的權(quán)力來(lái)穩(wěn)定金融體系并幫助避免經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條。

　　After a historically deep but brief recession， in mid-2020 the economy began to grow again． As the risks of a severe， extended downturn receded， and as the economy reopened， we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the Global Financial Crisis．

　　在經(jīng)歷了歷史上令人深刻但短暫的衰退之后，2020年年中，經(jīng)濟(jì)再次開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)。隨著嚴(yán)重偏向下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)消退，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)重新開(kāi)放，我們依然面臨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，可能會(huì)再次經(jīng)歷像全球金融危機(jī)之后那樣緩慢復(fù)蘇的痛苦。

　　Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021． Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021． The ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery． Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services． But pent-up demand， stimulative policies， pandemic changes in work and leisure practices， and the additional savings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods．

　　國(guó)會(huì)在 2020 年底和 2021 年初提供了大量額外的財(cái)政支持。2021 年上半年，支出強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。持續(xù)的疫情影響了復(fù)蘇的模式。對(duì)新冠疫情的持續(xù)擔(dān)憂拖累了面對(duì)面服務(wù)的支出。但被壓抑的需求、 *** 政策、疫情導(dǎo)致的工作和休閑習(xí)慣的變化，以及與服務(wù)支出受限相關(guān)的額外儲(chǔ)蓄，都促使消費(fèi)者在商品上的支出出現(xiàn)歷史性激增。

　　The pandemic also wreaked havoc on supply conditions． Eight million people left the workforce at its onset， and the size of the labor force was still 4 million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021． The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023 （figure 3）．Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers， disrupted international trade linkages， and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand （figure 4）． Clearly， this was nothing like the slow recovery after the Global Financial Crisis．

　　疫情還對(duì)供給端造成了嚴(yán)重破壞。疫情開(kāi)始時(shí)有 800 萬(wàn)人離開(kāi)了勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量仍比 2021 年初疫情前的水平低 400 萬(wàn)人。勞動(dòng)力直到2023年年中才恢復(fù)到疫情前的趨勢(shì)（圖3）。?工人流失、國(guó)際貿(mào)易聯(lián)系中斷以及需求水平以及組成的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化等因素使供應(yīng)鏈陷入困境（圖4）。顯然，這與全球金融危機(jī)后的緩慢復(fù)蘇完全不同。

　　Enter inflation． After running below target through 2020， inflation spiked in March and April 2021． The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad based， with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply， such as motor vehicles． My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and， thus， that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response—in short， that the inflation would be transitory． Standard thinking has long been that， as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored， it can be appropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation．

　　通貨膨脹開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn)。在 2020 年全年低于目標(biāo)水平后，通貨膨脹在 2021 年 3 月和 4 月飆升。最初的通貨膨脹爆發(fā)是集中的，而不是廣泛的，汽車(chē)等短缺商品的價(jià)格大幅上漲。我和我的同事一開(kāi)始就判斷，這些與疫情相關(guān)的因素不會(huì)持續(xù)，因此，通貨膨脹的突然上升很可能很快就會(huì)過(guò)去，而不需要貨幣政策應(yīng)對(duì)——簡(jiǎn)而言之，通貨膨脹將是暫時(shí)的。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)思維是，只要通脹預(yù)期保持良好穩(wěn)定，央行就可以忽略通脹的暫時(shí)上升。

　　The good ship Transitory was a crowded one， with most mainstream *** ysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board.The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly， that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course， and that demand would rotate back from goods to services， bringing inflation down．

　　“暫時(shí)性”這艘好船擠滿了人，大多數(shù)主流分析師和發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體央行行長(zhǎng)都支持這一觀點(diǎn)。他們普遍預(yù)期供應(yīng)狀況將迅速改善，需求的快速?gòu)?fù)蘇將順其自然，需求將從商品轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)，從而降低通脹率。

　　For a time， the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis． Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April to September 2021， although progress came slower than expected （figure 5）． The case began to weaken around midyear， as was reflected in our communications． Beginning in October， the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.9 Inflation rose and broadened out from goods into services． It became clear that the high inflation was not transitory， and that it would require a strong policy response if inflation expectations were to remain well anchored． We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November． Financial conditions began to tighten． After phasing out our asset purchases， we lifted off in March 2022．

　　一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，數(shù)據(jù)與暫時(shí)性假設(shè)相一致。2021 年 4 月至 9 月，核心通脹的月度讀數(shù)每月都在下降，盡管進(jìn)展慢于預(yù)期（圖 5）。正如我們的溝通所反映的那樣，這種情況在年中左右開(kāi)始減弱。從 10 月開(kāi)始，數(shù)據(jù)變得與暫時(shí)性假設(shè)背道而馳。9 通脹上升，并從商品擴(kuò)展到服務(wù)。很明顯，高通脹不是暫時(shí)的，如果要保持通脹預(yù)期的良好穩(wěn)定，就需要強(qiáng)有力的政策應(yīng)對(duì)。我們意識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn)，并從 11 月開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)變。金融狀況開(kāi)始收緊。在逐步取消資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)后，我們于 2022 年 3 月開(kāi)始加息。

　　By early 2022， headline inflation exceeded 6 percent， with core inflation above 5 percent． New supply shocks appeared． Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices． The improvements in supply conditions and rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected， in part due to further COVID waves in the U.S．?

　　到2022年初，總體通脹超過(guò)6%，核心通脹超過(guò)5%。新的供給沖擊出現(xiàn)。俄烏沖突導(dǎo)致能源和大宗商品價(jià)格大幅上漲。供給狀況的改善和需求從商品轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)的時(shí)間比預(yù)期的要長(zhǎng)得多，部分原因是美國(guó)新一輪的新冠浪潮。

　　High rates of inflation were a global phenomenon， reflecting common experiences： rapid increases in the demand for goods， strained supply chains， tight labor markets， and sharp hikes in commodity prices.12 The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1970s． Back then， high inflation became entrenched—an outcome we were utterly committed to avoiding．

　　高通脹率是一種全球現(xiàn)象，反映了共同的經(jīng)歷：商品需求迅速增加、供應(yīng)鏈緊張、勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊張以及大宗商品價(jià)格大幅上漲。全球通脹的本質(zhì)不同于上世紀(jì)70年代以來(lái)的任何時(shí)期。那時(shí)，高通脹已經(jīng)根深蒂固——這是我們盡全力避免的結(jié)果。

　　By mid-2022， the labor market was extremely tight， with employment increasing by over 6-1/2 million from the middle of 2021． This increase in labor demand was met， in part， by workers rejoining the labor force as health concerns began to fade． But labor supply remained constrained， and， in the summer of 2022， labor force participation remained well below pre-pandemic levels． There were nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed persons from March 2022 through the end of the year， signaling a severe labor shortage （figure 6）．Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022．

　　2022年年中，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)極度緊張，就業(yè)人數(shù)比2021年年中增加了650萬(wàn)以上。勞動(dòng)力需求的增加在一定程度上是通過(guò)工人重新加入勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的，因?yàn)槿藗儗?duì)健康的擔(dān)憂開(kāi)始消退。但勞動(dòng)力供給仍然受到限制，2022年夏天的勞動(dòng)力參與率仍遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前的水平。從2022年3月到年底，職位空缺數(shù)幾乎是失業(yè)人數(shù)的兩倍，表明勞動(dòng)力嚴(yán)重短缺（圖6）。通脹在2022年6月達(dá)到7.1%的峰值。

　　At this podium two years ago， I discussed the possibility that addressing inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth． Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession and a lengthy period of high unemployment． I expressed our unconditional commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the job is done．

　　兩年前，我曾在這個(gè)講臺(tái)上討論過(guò)，解決通貨膨脹問(wèn)題可能會(huì)帶來(lái)失業(yè)率上升和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩等一些痛苦。有人認(rèn)為，控制通貨膨脹需要經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和長(zhǎng)期的高失業(yè)率。我表達(dá)了我們無(wú)條件的承諾，即全面恢復(fù)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定，并堅(jiān)持下去，直到任務(wù)完成。

　　The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities， and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability． We raised our policy rate by 425 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023． We have held our policy rate at its current restrictive level since July 2023 （figure 7）．

　　FOMC在履行責(zé)任方面沒(méi)有退縮，我們的行動(dòng)有力地表明了我們對(duì)恢復(fù)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的決心。我們?cè)?022年將政策利率上調(diào)了425bp，并在2023年再次上調(diào) 100bp。自2023年7月以來(lái)，我們一直將政策利率維持在目前的限制性水平（圖7）。

　　The summer of 2022 proved to be the peak of inflation． The 4-1/2 percentage point decline in inflation from its peak two years ago has occurred in a context of low unemployment—a welcome and historically unusual result．

　　通脹在2022 年夏季達(dá)到峰值。在低失業(yè)率的背景下，通脹從兩年前的峰值下降了4.5%，這是一個(gè)可喜且歷史罕見(jiàn)的結(jié)果。

　　How did inflation fall without a sharp rise in unemployment above its estimated natural rate？

　　如何達(dá)到通脹下降而失業(yè)率沒(méi)有急劇上升到超過(guò)估計(jì)的自然失業(yè)率的？

　　Pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand， as well as severe shocks to energy and commodity markets， were important drivers of high inflation， and their reversal has been a key part of the story of its decline． The unwinding of these factors took much longer than expected but ultimately played a large role in the subsequent disinflation． Our restrictive monetary policy contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand， which combined with improvements in aggregate supply to reduce inflationary pressures while allowing growth to continue at a healthy pace． As labor demand also moderated， the historically high level of vacancies relative to unemployment has normalized primarily through a decline in vacancies， without sizable and disruptive layoffs， bringing the labor market to a state where it is no longer a source of inflationary pressures．

　　疫情相關(guān)的供需扭曲以及對(duì)能源和大宗商品市場(chǎng)的嚴(yán)重沖擊，是高通脹的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素，而它們的逆轉(zhuǎn)是通脹下降的關(guān)鍵部分。這些因素的消除花費(fèi)的時(shí)間比預(yù)期要長(zhǎng)得多，但最終在隨后的去通脹中發(fā)揮了重要作用。限制性貨幣政策導(dǎo)致總需求放緩，這與總供給的改善相結(jié)合，減輕了通脹壓力，同時(shí)繼續(xù)保持良性增長(zhǎng)。隨著勞動(dòng)力需求也有所放緩，職位空缺率/失業(yè)率已經(jīng)從歷史高位恢復(fù)正常，主要是通過(guò)職位空缺的下降，而非大規(guī)模和破壞性的裁員，使得勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)不再是通脹壓力的來(lái)源。

　　A word on the critical importance of inflation expectations． Standard economic models have long reflected the view that inflation will return to its objective when product and labor markets are balanced—without the need for economic slack—so long as inflation expectations are anchored at our objective． That‘s what the models said， but the stability of longer-run inflation expectations since the 2000s had not been tested by a persistent burst of high inflation． It was far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold． Concerns over de-anchoring contributed to the view that disinflation would require slack in the economy and specifically in the labor market． An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations， reinforced by vigorous central bank actions， can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack．

　　關(guān)于通脹預(yù)期的重要性。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型一直反映出這樣一種觀點(diǎn)，即只要通脹預(yù)期錨定在我們的目標(biāo)上，當(dāng)產(chǎn)品和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)達(dá)到平衡時(shí)，通脹就會(huì)回到其目標(biāo)，而不會(huì)帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)松弛。模型是這么說(shuō)的，但自2000年代以來(lái)長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期的穩(wěn)定性并沒(méi)有經(jīng)受過(guò)持續(xù)高通脹的考驗(yàn)。通脹能否持續(xù)錨定還遠(yuǎn)不能得以保障。對(duì)脫錨的擔(dān)憂促成了一種觀點(diǎn)，即去通脹將需要經(jīng)濟(jì)（尤其是勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)）的松弛。從最近的經(jīng)驗(yàn)中得出的一個(gè)重要結(jié)論是，錨定的通脹預(yù)期，加上央行的有力行動(dòng)，可以促進(jìn)去通脹，經(jīng)濟(jì)松弛并不是必須的。

　　This narrative attributes much of the increase in inflation to an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply． While researchers differ in their approaches and， to some extent， in their conclusions， a consensus seems to be emerging， which I see as attributing most of the rise in inflation to this collision.All told， the healing from pandemic distortions， our efforts to moderate aggregate demand， and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2 percent objective．

　　這種說(shuō)法將通脹上升主要?dú)w咎于（經(jīng)濟(jì)）過(guò)熱以及暫時(shí)扭曲的需求與受限的供給之間的非凡碰撞。盡管研究人員在 *** 上各不相同，在某種程度上他們的結(jié)論上也各不相同，但似乎正在形成一種共識(shí)，在我看來(lái)就是通脹上升的大部分原因應(yīng)歸咎于這場(chǎng)碰撞?？偠灾覀儚囊咔榈呐で谢謴?fù)了過(guò)來(lái)，我們?yōu)榫徍涂傂枨笏龅呐Y(jié)合對(duì)預(yù)期的錨定，共同使通脹走上了一條日益實(shí)現(xiàn)2%目標(biāo)的可持續(xù)道路。

　　Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations， which reflect the public‘s confidence that the central bank will bring about 2 percent inflation over time． That confidence has been built over decades and reinforced by our actions．

　　只有在錨定通脹預(yù)期的情況下才有可能在保持勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁的同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)去通脹，這反映了公眾有信心央行將逐漸達(dá)到2%左右的通脹目標(biāo)。這種信心是過(guò)去幾十年來(lái)建立起來(lái)的，并且通過(guò)我們的行動(dòng)得以加強(qiáng)。

　　That is my asses *** ent of events． Your mileage may vary．

　　這是我對(duì)事件的評(píng)估。可能因人而異。

　　Conclusion 結(jié)論

　　Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other， and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period． Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making appropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years． As we begin this process later this year， we will be open to critici *** and new ideas， while preserving the strengths of our framework． The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humility and a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and applying them flexibly to our current challenges．

　　最后，我想強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，事實(shí)證明，疫情經(jīng)濟(jì)與其他任何經(jīng)濟(jì)都不同，從這一特殊時(shí)期中我們?nèi)杂性S多東西需要學(xué)習(xí)。我們的《長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)和貨幣政策戰(zhàn)略聲明》強(qiáng)調(diào)，我們致力于每五年通過(guò)一次全面的公開(kāi)審查來(lái)審查我們的原則并做出適當(dāng)調(diào)整。當(dāng)我們?cè)诮衲晖硇r(shí)候開(kāi)始這一進(jìn)程時(shí)，我們將對(duì)批評(píng)和新想法持開(kāi)放態(tài)度，同時(shí)保持我們框架的優(yōu)勢(shì)。我們知識(shí)的局限性——在疫情期間顯而易見(jiàn)——要求我們保持謙遜和質(zhì)疑精神，專注于從過(guò)去吸取教訓(xùn)并靈活地將其應(yīng)用于我們當(dāng)前的挑戰(zhàn)。

　　注：鮑威爾講話稿原文詳見(jiàn)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官網(wǎng)，華爾街見(jiàn)聞略有刪節(jié)。

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